Main Forum
| Post Reply
|
Moojus Hint #4: Probablity
|
|
Play cribbage tournaments online
|
| It's now: Nov 18, 7:39pm EST |
Moojus Hint #4: Probablity
Posted by
Moojus
(VIP) 2 Mar 2006 9:21am
Today’s Tip:
Basic Probability Theory
In Cribbage as in most card games and games of chance, one should have an understanding of probability; usually referred to as the odds. This understanding will help you become a better cribbage (and card) player.
For this, I will use the standard coin and add the real world dynamics that it must land either on heads or tails. Landing on the edge is not a valid option.
First, I will keep it easy. If I flip the coin, what are the odds (probability) that it will land heads up? The odds are 50%. The calculation is the sum of desired outcomes (1–heads) divided by the number of possible outcomes (2-heads or tails).
1 / 2 = 50%
Now for a more difficult example, If I flip this same coin 4 times what are the odds of it coming up heads exactly twice? Is it 50% or is it something like 50% * 50% * 50% * 50% = 6.25%. Got you thinking haven’t I?
To compute the odds (probability), we must figure out all possible outcomes that could occur from flipping a coin 4 times; these I list below:
HHHH
HHHT
HHTH
HTHH
THHH
HHTT*
HTHT*
THHT*
HTTH*
TTHH*
THTH*
HTTT
THTT
TTHT
TTTH
TTTT
There are 16 possible outcomes. I put an ‘*’ next to each where exactly 2 heads appear. There are 6 of these where there are exactly 2 heads.
Using the calculations, the odds (probability) of exactly 2 heads appear if we flip the coin 4 times is the number of desired outcomes (6) divided by the number of possible outcomes (16):
6 / 16 = 37.5%
You need to understand this theory as it can be used to help you decide what to hold and/or discard. Remember, there is the negative side to the odds and this negative side does raise its ugly head!
Some players say that some players are lucky because they get a lot of cuts for the hand and/or crib.. In reality, many ‘lucky’ players have the skill of understanding the probability theory.
I hope that some of you are able to use my hints.
Happy Pegs,
Bob ‘Moojus’ Milk
These suggestions for improvement come from many sources, including, but not limited to the following:
“Play Winning Cribbage” by Delynn Colvert (the undisputed top player in North America)
“Cribbage: A New Concept” by John Chambers
The Cribbage Forum web site hosted by Michael Schell
Hints from some of the top American Cribbage Congress Players
My personal experiences
Disclaimer: I have no vested interest in any of the publications listed. These techniques work for me and for many others; your results may vary.
Reply to this topic
|
Play cribbage tournaments online
At GameColony.com you can play games of skill only -- play for free or play for $prizes!.
According to the statutes of most states in the United States, gambling is defined as: "risking something of value upon the outcome of a contest of chance". (Also see No Gambling!). The skill (as opposed to chance) is predominant in games of skill. Playing games of skill for $prizes, therefore, has nothing to do with gambling as it is not a contest of chance -- the more skillful player will win far more often. The chance element of a 'gamble' is either insignificant or missing. When players compete in tournaments or games of skill for $prizes -- it is "competitive entertainment" rather then "gambling". The more skilled winner will always win more matches, tournaments and $prizes.
|
|
